My Pick to Win The Masters

Standing in the winners circle, Jordan Spieth looks back on a 3 year absence from the place he now pontificates from, all the while Journey's power ballad "Don't Stop Believin" plays in the hospitality area in the background. The interviewer, Steve Sands, is quick to point out the relevance of the song given how the past few years involved Jordan, formerly the Number 1 ranked player in the mens game, falling to as low as 92 earlier this year. Just before Sands points out the song, Jordan tells him that he had in fact stopped believing, our at least that his confidence wavered with respect to him ever winning again. Would he ever regain his status in the game or would he devolve into a (still impressive and totally rich) mediocre tour player.

Just a city boy

Many of Jordan's rounds of golf acts as a microcosm of his career to date. Any given three hole stretch can result in three birdies, several club twirls, maybe a made 30 footer. This is the Golden Child's game we came to expect over his ascension to the #1 position.

It goes on and on, and on, and on

However, things can turn quickly for Jordan in any round, as they did in 2018 onward. A perplexingly and frustrating missed 3 footer, a drive goes WAY right ("Go WAY right"), a disagreement with his caddy, and it unravels. Many people think that the major highs for a few years, followed by the drought was really just the law of averages showing up in a weird way, and I think that's an interesting way of looking at it. Maybe he should have won ~1-2 times per year for 10 years and he just got all the breaks for a while, and then none for the next while.

Tangent: In 2012, SB Nation's Spencer Hall wrote an article titled "Your BCS Team as a Drug." (Article here: https://www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com/2012/7/6/3138945/your-bcs-team-as-a-drug) If Hall would have applied his concept to golf, there is zero doubt Jordan Spieth would be cocaine. Every round is a rollercoaster ride with Jordan, and it was so enjoyable to watch him close the door so emphatically today (despite the pull-hook botched layup on 18, he just couldn't help himself!).

Everybody wants a thrill

So, as the Tour moves from San Antonio to Augusta for the year's first major, and with Spieth officially back, there's no telling how many people are going to be picking him to win, myself included. I'm going to get ahead of the telecast to answer the question you are already asking: "Okay, Jordan's playing great, but did he peak too early?" The answer, simply is "not necessarily" and there is actually precedence for winning back-to-back, with the second win coming at Augusta National.

Fresh off of a heater on Wikipedia, I can tell you that since 1960, there have been two guys to complete the feat: In 2006 Phil won the Bell South Classic and The Masters the following week, his second of three Green Jackets. In 1988 Sandy Lyle won something called the K-Mart Greensboro Open and followed it up with a W the very next week. How about that, huh? Honestly, I am really happy there IS precedence for it. Obviously, there will always be someone to do something for the first time, like win the Par 3 competition and then the actual tournament, but I'm glad Jordan doesn't have that weight, and can continue to feel how he did all day today - "light".

Hold on to that feelin'

Figure 1: Scotland's Alexander "Sandy" Lyle was the first person to win The Masters the week immediately following a win. Sandy has 100% entered the old-man stage of his career where he has foregone the belt for suspenders, basically because he was fed up with his shirt getting untucked. Awesome stuff from the man who (potentially) paved the way for Jordan.

A few other reasons why I love Jordan to win this week is how Augusta National sets up and what skills it favours. The people at DataGolf have a Course Fit tool that shows relative importance of skills compared to average PGA Tour courses. What the graph shows is that Driving Accuracy is less important at Augusta compared to the average course (lack of rough at Augusta), while Driving Distance and Approach is most important.

Figure 2: DataGolf graphic displaying relative importance of skillset at Augusta National when compared to the average PGA Tour venue.

Even when Jordan was winning lots, it always seemed like the driver was mercurial; coming into this week, Jordan was 162/217 players in Strokes Gained Driving. However, he also happens to be decently long (slightly above tour average) AND a wizard with the irons (43/217 SG Approach). Do his strokes gained numbers make him tailor-made to win at Augusta next week? Not necessarily. His fit is good, not great, but come on, can't you just SEE it?!?!

For what it's worth, DataGolf shows John Rahm to have the highest percentage of winning the tournament. My model, though, which is mainly driven by links to 80s rock songs and gut feel, is screaming Jordan.